45-day Campaign Period for Midterm Elections Kicks Off, Pivotal Moment for Administration

The midterm election race is set to intensify as the 45-day campaign period for local candidates began on March 28, amid a deepening political feud between the Marcoses and the Dutertes. With former President Rodrigo Duterte detained at the ICC and Vice President Sara Duterte facing impeachment, the ongoing conflict carries significant implications for both local and national politics. The approaching midterm elections will act as a gauge of the current administration's trajectory, functioning as a symbolic showdown that will shape the course of the conflict ahead and a precursor to the 2028 presidential contest.

While both President Marcos and Vice President Duterte have seen a drop in their performance satisfaction ratings from September 2024 to February 2025, reflecting increasing dissatisfaction, a significant portion of voters will still likely support both leaders. With a total of 66 candidates running for the Senate, 12 of 24 seats are contested. A March 2025 SWS survey shows that 9 of 12 Marcos-backed candidates have made it to the top 13 of the midterm election race; while 2 of Duterte-affiliated candidates – Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa – have also made it to the list. Historically, Filipino voters tend to prioritize personality as opposed to issues in elections, voting for candidates who have name recognition. The Senate election outcome is expected to influence Vice President Duterte’s impeachment trial. If the candidates aligned with the Marcos administration secure a majority in both the Senate and the House, the focus will shift from the Marcos-Duterte rivalry to the matter of Marcos' succession.