Dear members,
Greetings from the Council! We’ve had a busy month supporting engagements between member companies and ASEAN governments as both navigate new uncertainties in the international trade landscape.
The U.S. administration’s “America First” approach to international trade is prompting Southeast Asian countries to explore creative ways to navigate economic opportunities and challenges. The Government of Malaysia, for instance, has called for a U.S.-ASEAN forum on U.S. trade policy, while also expanding its network of trading partners by deepening economic relations with the EU, China, Russia, and Brazil. Indonesia has also intensified trade negotiations with countries like Peru, Canada, and India.
Owing to their large trade surpluses with the United States, Vietnam and Thailand remain potential targets for tariff hikes. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has ordered a study on the potential impact of U.S. trade policy on Thai exports, while the Government of Thailand has announced plans to import one million tons of ethane from the United States to narrow its trade surplus. Vietnam shares similar concerns over the threat of tariffs and has expressed its readiness to engage with the United States to manage its trade imbalance.
While certain countries and industries might gain from the United States’ implementation of higher import tariffs—on a universal, reciprocal, or targeted basis—such changes could create commercial disruptions in global trade for American companies operating in Southeast Asian economies. A recent study by Nomura highlights that in ASEAN, U.S. universal tariffs pose the greatest threat to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. You can read the Council’s most recent Customs, Trade, and Supply Chains update here.
To keep our members abreast of these trade developments and their implications, we engaged in robust programming this month. The Council and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce were honored to co-host a Business Roundtable with Thai Minister of Commerce Pichai Naripthaphan, whom we had the privilege of meeting during last year’s Thailand Business Mission. This exclusive event in Washington provided a valuable opportunity to continue the conversation with the Minister and senior Thai government officials. During the roundtable, participants discussed investment opportunities, free trade agreement initiatives, and the evolving business regulatory environment. Minister Pichai reaffirmed Thailand’s eagerness to attract investment and underscored the government’s commitment to supporting U.S. businesses.
Earlier this week, the Council hosted a Business Roundtable with Ambassador of Vietnam to the United States Nguyen Quoc Dzung in our Washington office. The roundtable marked our first event in Washington to commemorate the 30th anniversary of normalized U.S.-Vietnam relations. The session provided a timely platform to engage with Ambassador Dzung ahead of the Council’s Business Mission to Vietnam in March, where our delegation will meet with Vietnam’s top leadership, including senior officials from newly restructured ministries. The roundtable featured a fireside chat between Ambassador Dzung and me, followed by a dynamic Q&A with industry leaders. Discussions covered a range of topics, including the outlook on U.S.-Vietnam relations, opportunities and key sectors for U.S. business engagement, and private sector participation in 30th anniversary events in both countries.
We were also honored to host a farewell luncheon for Dato' Seri Mohamed Nazri bin Tan Sri Abdul Aziz, Ambassador of Malaysia to the United States, in Washington. Ambassador Nazri has been an invaluable partner to the Council and its members, building a productive channel to Kuala Lumpur while opening new doors to trade and investment in Malaysia. He and his family have also been influential supporters of cultural exchange and people-to-people ties between our two countries. Participants included ambassadors and representatives from all ten ASEAN embassies in Washington, U.S. government officials, and the Council’s member companies. We wish Ambassador Nazri the best of luck in his future endeavors.
Meanwhile, in the region, the Council’s Regional Managing Director and Senior Vice President Ambassador Brian McFeeters led a delegation of 13 companies to meet with Singapore’s Trade and Industry Deputy Secretary Keith Tan for a roundtable on Singapore’s strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The discussion highlighted the complexities of Singapore’s energy transition and the challenges of balancing affordability, sustainability, and energy security, as well as ideas to strengthen collaboration between the U.S. private sector and the Government of Singapore.
This month also saw us hold our first Chairman's Council Advisory Group meeting of the year, featuring a discussion with Alex Capri on his book, Techno-Nationalism: How It’s Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics, and Society. Capri explored the growing intersection of technology and national security, focusing on trends such as shifting supply chains, the weaponization of trade, and the rise of power-multiplier technologies such as AI and semiconductors. Following Capri’s presentation, the Council reflected on its 2024 achievements and outlined its strategies for 2025, inviting valuable input from Chairman’s Council members on the challenges most critical to member companies in the year ahead. I had the pleasure of interviewing Alex Capri later that week, highlights of which can be found in this newsletter.
Finally, the US-ASEAN Business Council Institute (USABCI) held an information session with its Board of Directors to discuss activities and workstreams for the coming year. Directors received an update about supplementing the “America Matters to Indonesia” grant with private sector funds, pursuing a grant from the Department of Defense, and planning upcoming SME workshops. Moreover, a guest speaker presented the Institute's plans to expand its Board of Directors. Please contact the Institute’s President and CEO Maggie Hanson-Muse (mhansonm@usasean.org) for additional information.
As we approach March, we’re thrilled to be leading our Vietnam Business Mission to Hanoi, which will be immediately followed by our Health & Life Sciences Mission there. I look forward to seeing many of you in Vietnam or at one of our many other exciting programs.
Best regards,
Ted
EXPERT SPOTLIGHT: ALEX CAPRI
The following interview has been edited and condensed for clarity. All views expressed in this interview are the author’s own and not necessarily representative of the views of the Council.
Alex Capri is a former Senior Fellow and current Senior Lecturer in the Business School and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS). He has been based in Asia for 20 years, previously the Partner and Regional Leader of KPMG’s International Trade & Customs Practice in Asia-Pacific and previously a Director in PwC’s World Trade Management practice. He is also a research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, where he has authored essays on international trade, technology, and geopolitics.
His recent book, Techno-Nationalism: How It's Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics and Society, explores why nations are restricting the flow of strategic technologies and how the international system is bifurcating and reorganizing itself around American and Chinese spheres of influence. You can purchase the book here.
Ted Osius
What is the premise of techno-nationalism?
Alex Capri
Techno-nationalism is the linkage of a country's technology prowess through its major institutions and that of its national security, its economic strength, and its social stability.
Every country, everywhere, is susceptible to the dynamics of techno-nationalism. Superpowers and the G7—plus countries that have been pulled directly into the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry—will be affected in terms of the innovation race, the amount of money that gets focused on developing the key strategic technologies. They will be involved in what I call the “technology feedback loop,” meaning that universities, defense establishments, private companies, and of course, key governments, will be directly interacting with each other.
The next grouping of countries are the middle-tier countries. These are countries that are very connected in global supply chains, but they're not major powers. I'm talking about countries in Southeast Asia, key economies like Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. These countries are affected by techno-nationalism because they are now subject to export controls, technology control, and restrictions.
Ted Osius
From our perspective, since we focus on ASEAN, these nations are frontline.
Alex Capri
They are frontline. To take an example, Malaysia has been a focus for data center building, and it's also a key location in Southeast Asia for a portion of the semiconductor value chain around packaging and testing. Up until this point, it's been a transit point, and it's also been a location that has attracted a lot of Chinese investment. Because of the decoupling phenomenon that's happening with China, you have multinational companies restructuring their supply chains out of China into neighboring countries in Southeast Asia. And, possibly even more importantly, we have Chinese companies relocating their operations.
Ted Osius
Because you talk a lot about the opportunities of public-private partnerships, what role would those PPPs and corporate diplomacy play in the shifting global economic order?
Alex Capri
From an innovation perspective and from a competitiveness perspective, governments are looking to get ahead to win the innovation race, and the only way to do that now is to have the right combination of partners. You need governments to provide that seed money where the risks are too high for private commercial interest to take—the timeline might be too long before there's a return, if there even is a return.
Take, for example, the push to re-shore critical mineral processing back to North America to build up capabilities. From a techno-nationalist perspective, that's a decades-long process for most rare earth mining and processing. If it were not for government money, it just wouldn't be profitable. It's essentially a type of public good that needs to be provided by governments.
Ted Osius
Let's go back to Southeast Asia as a growing hub for data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. How can Southeast Asia most effectively navigate heightened global trade tensions in the field of critical technologies and artificial intelligence?
Alex Capri
That’s the million-dollar question. The endgame is to try to avoid a binary choice. If you're Singapore, Malaysia, or any country, the question is, “Can we retain agency? And can we trade with as many people as possible and not have to worry about being coerced into behaving one way or the other?”
This is most acute in the technology stacks around the “semiconductor-AI nexus” and how this relates to data centers and the cloud. The link is between AI—which, again, is dependent on semiconductors—and this burgeoning area of data centers. When we think of the cloud, we tend to think of something up in the ether, right? But 99% of the data in the cloud passes through physical fiber-optic undersea cables.
Ted Osius
That's the critical infrastructure.
Alex Capri
All of that is now an existential issue for middle countries—countries in Southeast Asia in particular—who are faced with a binary choice. They must choose who's building their critical technology stacks and their critical infrastructure.
Ted Osius
Given the growing number of countries banning the use of certain mobile applications—TikTok and potentially DeepSeek—and introducing age restrictions for social media—Australia and Indonesia come to mind—how do you foresee the development of the relationship between large tech companies and the governments of their host countries?
Alex Capri
Good question. I do think that we're going to see more attempts to regulate big tech. And here is where I think there's going to be an interesting paradox: there's a need to regulate big tech because of mental health concerns. There are, from a techno-nationalist standpoint, concerns around censorship and narrative, including influence campaigns and disinformation campaigns. There's that hybrid warfare element—these big technology companies are strategic assets from a techno-nationalist standpoint. Big tech is very important to governments as they build hard infrastructure around AI, so there are symbiotic relationships that are directly linked to techno-nationalism.
Ted Osius
Well, they're certainly seen as strategic assets in the United States. Witness who attended President Trump's inauguration.
But in Southeast Asia, there are also the companies that each of those nations wants to attract the most. There's this understanding that if you're going to move up from low value-added manufacturing to an innovation economy, you need those assets. You need the data centers and the ecosystems that are created around these big tech companies. Some countries have a head start—I think of Malaysia having attracted investment since the 1970s, which makes it hard for the newbies to catch up.
Alex Capri
In this techno-nationalist environment, there are winners and losers. In the short term, the losers might be those that have high sunk costs and now must shift their supply chains for geopolitical reasons. Many companies are trying to avoid that. But on the flip side, when you think about all this restructuring and reshoring, there’s a lot of money to be made. There are a lot of companies that are going to build these new supply chains. They're going to provide services, build infrastructure, underwrite it, and loan money.
If I had to sum up where I think this techno-nationalist dynamic is pushing industry, it’s going to involve what I call the “five Ts.” You need trust and truth for any successful business endeavor or any relationship. And to do that, you need technology. You need talent. And, of course, you need transparency. And then, actually, you can achieve the sixth “T,” which would be traceability.
Ted Osius
This is fascinating. I urge those who read this interview to get Alex’s book and study it. It's going to help you discover what both the challenges and the opportunities are of this global phenomenon that's affecting pretty much every business on the planet. Thank you.
Alex Capri
Thank you very much, Ambassador Osius. It’s been a pleasure.
Read the full interview with Alex Capri here.
UPCOMING EVENTS
The Council is organizing its annual Business Mission to Vietnam from March 18 to 20 in Hanoi, followed by the Health and Life Sciences Mission to Vietnam from March 20 to 21. This year’s Business Mission takes place during a pivotal year, coinciding with the 30th anniversary of U.S.-Vietnam normalization and a major government restructuring in Vietnam. This is a timely opportunity for U.S. businesses to engage early with senior leaders and gain essential insights into Vietnam’s evolving policy landscape and business environment. President & CEO Ambassador Ted Osius (ret.) and Senior Vice President & Regional Managing Director Ambassador Brian McFeeters (ret.) will co-lead the Mission along with Mr. Michael Nguyen, Country Director of Boeing Vietnam and Chair of the Council’s Vietnam Committee. For questions about the Vietnam Business Mission, please contact Le Nguyen (lnguyen@usasean.org), and for questions about the Health and Life Sciences Mission, please contact Gretchen Kunze (gkunze@usasean.org).
On March 6, Sean O’Neill, Senior Bureau Official for the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and other officials will meet with the Council’s members to discuss the U.S. government’s policy priorities in Southeast Asia. For more information, please contact Robin Huang (rhuang@usasean.org).
On March 31, the Council and the U.S.-ASEAN Center will hold a panel discussion on cyber threats and risk mitigation in ASEAN, featuring experts from the U.S. government and industry. This event will offer valuable insights on how stakeholders can collaborate to enhance ASEAN's cyber resiliency. This will also mark the start of U.S.-ASEAN Business Leaders’ Series, which aims to foster greater U.S.-ASEAN cooperation among policymakers, business leaders, and academia in Washington.
From April 8 to 10, the Council will be leading a Business Mission to the ASEAN Finance Ministers’ and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting (AFMGM) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The Council will also develop a white paper for the mission to outline the positions of the U.S. financial services industry, address key policy challenges, and present private sector-driven solutions for finance ministries and central banks. The official invitation for the mission and call for input for the white paper will be circulated soon. For more information, please contact Christine Wan (cwan@usasean.org) and Bella Afifa (safifa@usasean.org).
COMINGS AND GOINGS
A warm welcome to Mr. Kevin Byfield, the Council’s new IT Director, who joined the Washington office on February 3. A graduate of Capitol Technology University with a BSc in Computer Science and a Certificate in Programming and Data Management, Kevin is an experienced systems integrator and administrator with 16 years of industry experience. He has managed IT infrastructure for businesses of varying sizes using his knowledge of network security protocols, operating systems, and virtualization technologies. Kevin has designed and implemented backup and disaster recovery strategies that ensure business continuity, providing timely resolutions to minimize downtime and enhance productivity.
Ms. Reina Kato joined the Council's Jakarta office as the Indonesia Associate on February 10. Reina obtained her Bachelor of Political Science in International Relations from Universitas Gadjah Mada and was a University of Glasgow Social Sciences Exchange Student. She is a highly motivated researcher, managing multiple projects during her internship at the Council. Her interests comprise sustainability, trade, business, public policy, and public affairs. She completed a thesis on the European Union’s sustainability leadership, with a focus on the projection of circular economy practices toward developing countries.
COUNCIL IN THE NEWS
Minister set to meet key US officials - Bangkok Post
Thai govt projects draw Google interest - Bangkok Post
Thailand to Discuss More US Imports as Tariff Concerns Linger - Financial Post
Pichai visits Washington to further strengthen trade ties with US - The Nation Thailand
Minister seeks stronger US trade ties - Bangkok Post
Trump orders introduction of reciprocal tariffs, beginning with probes - Nikkei Asia
Malaysian Embassy in US highlights ASEAN Chairmanship Priorities - Bernama
